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Planning Sales-Based Affordable Housing Through Population- Employment-Housing-Land Matching: A Case Study of Guangzhou
Author:Shen Ping, Lü Feng, Wang Yufei, Wang Ye, Lin Jing

Abstract: The development of sales-based affordable housing (SBAH) is an important reform measure for strengthening China’s housing security system, and its rational spatial layout is essential to improving the efficiency of public resource allocation. Taking Guangzhou as a case study and starting from the principle of job-housing balance, this paper constructs a parcel-scale technical method for SBAH layout based on population-employment-housing-land matching. On the demand side, an affordability-based demand model is used to identify groups with high, medium and medium-low levels of demand, and the estimates are calibrated with policy requirements and residents’ purchase intentions to approximate real demand more closely. On the supply side, the paper systematically identifies unbuilt land and inefficient existing land, matches these resources with demand, and screens suitable parcels by incorporating service facilities, industrial platform distribution and population growth trends. The results show that parcels suitable for SBAH in Guangzhou are mainly concentrated in Science City, Tianhe Smart City and Smart Valley, Baiyun New City and related areas, forming a spatial pattern of “one ring and ten nodes” composed of an SBAH support ring around the old urban area and ten priority layout areas. The method provides an effective pathway for more precise SBAH siting and layout.